Confidence progression

The confidence progression chart shows how the probability of each variant being the best performer changes over time as more data arrives.

How it works

After your campaign sends, engagement events (opens, clicks, conversions) flow back to liftstack via webhooks. As each batch of events arrives, the Bayesian model updates and the probability estimates shift. You can watch confidence build from 50% (no information) toward the decision threshold.

When to check

For open rate as the primary metric, signal typically arrives within hours. For conversion rate and revenue, expect 12-48 hours depending on your audience size and typical conversion timeline. There is no statistical penalty for checking results early or often, unlike frequentist methods.